Bank of America analyst says US-China AI race will have no clear winner

In an interview with a newspaper on Monday (21), Matty Zhao, co-head of China equities at Bank of America Global Research, said neither country would be able to dominate the artificial intelligence sector alone. The statement came just before a high-level bilateral summit between Washington and Beijing.

Interconnected supply chains

Zhao said the two economies’ technology supply chains are deeply interconnected. China has made progress in power grids and manufacturing equipment, but still relies on foreign suppliers for advanced chips, memory, and some cutting-edge materials. The United States, meanwhile, faces limitations in its electrical infrastructure: the American grid is on average 30 to 40 years old, while the Chinese grid is 15 to 20 years old.

Investments and infrastructure

In 2024, private investment in AI in the United States reached $109.1 billion, well above the roughly $9.3 billion recorded in China, according to Stanford University’s 2025 AI Index. The difference in resources also reflects the capacity for data center expansion, which in the US is already generating political resistance due to rising energy costs.

Hardware, models, and practical applications

China has managed to obtain advanced chips, such as Nvidia’s H100 and H800, and equipment for SMIC through shell companies and Taiwan’s TSMC. Even so, Chinese AI hardware currently operates at 70% to 100% of the H100’s performance, with even lower energy efficiency. American institutions produced 40 notable AI models in 2024, compared to 15 in China, but analysts point out that the Asian country is advancing more quickly in applying the technology in factories, logistics, and vehicles.

Implications for global competition

The interdependence of supply chains and infrastructure limitations suggest that the race for AI will be defined more by the ability to integrate and use the technology practically than by technological isolation. While the United States leads in building advanced models, China seeks to transform the technology into competitive advantages in industrial sectors.