Anthropic’s projections outline three possible futures for AI and the US economy by 2030

Artificial intelligence is at the heart of discussions about the future of work and the economy. Anthropic, the company behind the Claude model, has developed three projections for the United States by 2030, ranging from a moderate impact to a radical transformation.

Moderate scenario: AI as a support tool

In the most conservative scenario, AI would increase US GDP by 1.6%, to $34.1 trillion—an effect comparable to that of the internet over several decades. Most professions would retain their current structure, with technology acting primarily as an auxiliary tool.

Intermediate scenario: automation of half of intellectual work

In the intermediate projection, AI would autonomously perform half of all knowledge-based activities, boosting GDP by 8.3%, to $36.3 trillion. Economic growth would accelerate, but wages for intellectual professions would remain stable, with no abrupt declines for retained workers.

Extreme scenario: accelerated expansion and decline in wage share

In the most aggressive scenario, the US economy would grow by 15% annually, doubling in size every 4.5 years, thanks to a self-improving AI cycle. Unemployment would surpass historical recession levels, and the share of GDP allocated to wages would fall from 60% to 45.2%.

A survey by Anthropic of over 10,000 Americans found that most respondents expect a future close to the intermediate scenario, while about 10% believe in a rapid and radical change in the labor market.

The projections highlight the range of potential AI impacts, from a moderate productivity increase to a profound reorganization of the economic structure.