Artificial intelligence can boost global GDP, but requires infrastructure and skilled workers

The International Monetary Fund believes that investments in artificial intelligence are already helping to sustain global economic growth. In the long term, the technology has the potential to increase productivity and the productive capacity of economies, although the gains depend on a solid infrastructure base, a skilled workforce, and adoption by companies. At the same time, the transformation of the labor market could exacerbate inequalities.

Revised growth forecast

During the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank, held on Monday, October 12, in Bangkok, Thailand, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said that resources invested in AI help maintain global growth at around 3%, even in the face of energy supply pressures. On Tuesday, October 13, the Fund updated its estimates: for 2026, the forecast was revised from 3% (July) to 3.1%, and for 2027 the projection is 3.4%.

Mechanisms contributing to GDP

The IMF identifies two distinct stages. In the first stage, the construction of AI infrastructure increases demand for equipment, energy, and services. The resources invested in this phase already stimulate the economy before users can produce more with the technology.

In the second stage, the benefits depend on productivity gains: companies and workers need to be able to deliver more with the same resources. In a speech in September, Georgieva estimated that AI could add between 0.1 and 0.8 percentage points to global annual potential growth in the long term. This measure reflects a possible expansion of growth capacity, but does not mean that global GDP has already incorporated this increase, nor does it define a single timeframe for its realization.

Inequalities in the distribution of benefits

Economies with advanced digital infrastructure and a skilled workforce are better positioned to incorporate AI, according to the Fund. Countries with limitations in these areas may benefit less from the gains, which increases the risk of widening the gap between rich and poor nations.

Inequality also manifests itself within each country. Workers who master the use of AI can increase their productivity and earnings, while others face lower demand for their activities. At the same time, corporate profits can increase returns for capital owners.

Impact on employment

The IMF’s assessment indicates that nearly 40% of jobs worldwide are exposed to AI, a proportion that reaches about 60% in advanced economies. Exposure does not imply dismissal: some professionals may benefit from tools that complement their work. In other activities, the technology can perform tasks previously performed by people, reduce hiring, or put pressure on wages.

To capture the benefits, the Fund recommends investments in digital infrastructure, professional training, and retraining programs. Social safety nets are also essential to support workers who face difficulties during the transition.

Frequently Asked Questions

How can AI increase GDP?

Investments in infrastructure stimulate the economy in the short term. Subsequently, the adoption of technology can increase productivity and production capacity.

What is the IMF’s global growth forecast?

The estimate released in October predicts growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. These figures cover the entire economy, not just the contribution of AI.

Will AI eliminate 40% of jobs?

The estimate refers to jobs exposed to the technology, which can complement work or replace some of its tasks, without necessarily implying dismissal.